Sand images welcome the candidates to Myrtle Beach, S.C.

Post New Hampshire

Republican Reality/Perception Check
Myrtle Beach, SC Fox News Debate

Analysis from ProConPundit Central Coast War Room-9:30 p.m. Heartland Time

Romney, McCain & Giuliani all did a good job. Romney seemed particularly on top of his game. McCain and Giuliani both seemed tired. Thompson was at his best.

In some hyper-patriotic melodrama, Huckabee said that if Iran ever wants to mess with one of our ships, they better take a good look at that vessel, "because the next thing you see will be the gates of hell." In replying, Thompson somewhat agreed saying that if they mess with us, "They may just get introduced to those virgins they are looking forward to meeting." Huckabee was a little weird but Thompson brought the house down.

Thompson, fighting Huckabee to win South Carolina, really took him on through the course of the debate. His opening salvo was that Huckabee "is a good Christian man but liberal on everything else." Thompson went through a stinging, compelling and indicting litany of liberal positions of Huckabee. He is against abortion, evolution and gays, and in favor of the second amendment, even to the point of liberally arming city dwellers with hand guns. On everything else, he is liberal. He received the endorsement, Thompson pointed out, of the National Education Association for his opposition to vouchers. The ProConPundit will never support him if he is against vouchers...unless his opponent is Hillary Clinton.

Fred Thompson would make a superb running mate. If Rudy or Romney gets nominated, he’d make sense. If McCain gets nominated, he’d need someone younger than Thompson. If Huckabee gets nominated, he’d need someone more northern than Thompson.

Huckabee was asked a question about his embrace of a Christian scripture that calls for women to be submissive to their husbands. (Ephesians 5:22 Wives, be subject to your own husbands, as to the Lord.) He first responded by saying that its ironic how the subject of religion is off limits unless its his. He gave a brief but touching and accurate analysis of the text. He went on to get rousing applause from the house for stating that he would never impose his religious views as president, just as he never did as governor, but that he would also not apologize for his religious views. The ProConPundit shares some religious beliefs with the Huckster and differs on others. He has been FAR MORE criticized for his religious faith than has Romney.

Huckabee, Romney & Thompson all criticize McCain for not being tough enough on illegal immigrants. They each think the 12 million illegal immigrants should go back to Mexico but have no plan on how to get them back there. Huckabee said, "The notion that the government wound round these people up is absurd. They got themselves here and they can get themselves back to the end of the line." Really? Good luck with that.

Ron Paul for all of the criticism of him he made a great point when he asked why, if Israel is such a good friend of ours, why are we arming all of it’s enemies? He pointed out that the US gives 3 times the aid it gives to Israel to its Arab neighbors. The ProConPundit likes Ron Paul. Sometimes he seems wacky but other times he speaks a truth no one wants to hear. He was questioned to whether his views are really Republican. His response was prophetic. He said, "What is Republican about borrowing 10 million dollars from China to give it to Musharraf?" He also said, "Republicans used to call for the elimination of the Department of Education and now we’ve doubled it."

Before the debate...
Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and Patrick Toomey of the Club for Growth (a former PA congressman who unsuccessfully attempted to unseat Arlen Specter) sparred on Hardball tonight as to which GOP contenders would be palatable to all three legs of the GOP stool: fiscal conservatives, social conservatives and defense/foreign policy conservatives. Huckabee is really unacceptable to fiscal and defense conservatives and Giuliani is totally unacceptable to social conservatives. McCain was the only name that they both agreed could be acceptable, if not optimal, to all Republicans.

Conventional wisdom is that Romney must win Michigan. However if he keeps coming in second while various people come in first, he wins the nomination as no one’s first choice. His ad buy pull back signals that he is not going to spend good money after bad if his ship is sinking. McCain did well in Michigan in 2000 but it is the state of Romney’s birth and upbringing, and where his father was a three term governor and one-time presidential candidate. I predict Romney will drop out of he loses Michigan. He once would have held-on through South Carolina, but Huckabee is rising there–and is currently leading in Michigan.

Huckabee’s populist message is rare for a Republican but may take hold, particularly in Michigan which is financially depressed and where many jobs have been lost and more will continue to be lost. He has a great commercial, a jab at Romney that says, "Working people will vote for a guy who reminds them of the guy they work with instead of voting for the guy that reminds them of the guy who laid them off.

Even given that Giuliani has a national campaign strategy, he should have done better in Iowa and New Hampshire. His national numbers are going down. He’s not to be counted out, at all, but he’s got a rough road ahead.