Nothing Could Be Finer
McCain pulls off narrow SC victory over Huckabee
Romney wins Nevada picks up 10 more delegates than SC
Reporting from Florida, make that Florida Orange Juice Time 6 a.m.
in Chicago with 5 degrees below zero.
First, a ProConPundit apology and correction. The ProConPundit swallowed the media line about how no one has ever won the GOP nomination without winning South Carolina. Well, yes, no one has ever done that since 1980. Remember when they used to say no sitting Vice-President has been elected in over 150 years? Martin Van Buren was the last sitting VP elected to the presidency in 1837 until George H. W. Bush broke that record in 1988. No son of a president, and that is SOP, was ever a president since John Quincy Adams in 1825, until Dubya broke that record in 2000. My guy won in South Carolina last night but can we agree on one thing folks? All bets are off. The old rules of thumb may be out the window. Also, no sitting member of congress has been elected president since 1960. Wonder if that one will get slashed, too? Anyway, I apologize for not having that fact checked.
Nothing could be finer than to see John McCain pull out a victory in South Carolina. Personally, I don’t think it is all that important. I bet that’s not what you expected me to say. This race is wide open. The beauty of the win in the state whose motto is "WHILE I BREATHE I HOPE” is that whether you like John McCain or not, whether you want him to win or not, he is a decent man who was trashed in South Carolina eight years ago, not by Carolinians but by the brain of George W. Bush aka Karl Rove. Come what may, the victory last night breathed in a bit of healing and a bit of hope. With only 40% of evangelicals voting for Huckabee, it also REDEEMED evangelical Christians from the stereotype that they would put theology over anything else. They don’t. The ProConPundit has been a tad rough on the Christian soldiers in that regard.
McCain won with 33% of the vote to Huckabee’s 30% given that Fred Thompson garnered 16% of the vote, there can be no question but that Thompson delivered a victory to McCain by taking votes away from Huckabee. Thompson will get out of the race, probably Monday or Tuesday and endorse McCain. Incidentally, Brownback endorsed McCain when he bowed out and Tancredo endorsed Romney. Anyone else who bows out at this point will endorse McCain.
The Huckster’s narrow loss in SC does demonstrate his ability to do well enough to be taken seriously as a running mate. In fact, his concession speech last night in SC was the re-installation speech of his real campaign—to be Vice-President. He was sickeningly effusive of John McCain, a man he had spent a week trashing. Face it Huckster. You’re only shot at VP is if Romney gets the nod, which is still very much on the table. The maverick warrior doesn’t like slick.
The ProConPundit wishes Thompson would stay in the race through Florida. With McCain, Giuliani and Romney all vying to be the establishment candidate, Huckabee’s populist message to under-employed and unemployed and Christian conservatives could pull out a victory if the other three split the vote. The ProConPundit has learned from well informed sources (that means I think it happened and really wanted it to) that the McCain camp has pledged money to Thompson to stay in through Florida. Thompson would do it except that his mother is gravely ill and wants to tend to that. Fred will say some poignant words in the next couple of days; the screen will go black and say, “PRODUDED BY DICK WOLF.” Thompson is a good man, the ProConPundit heart, cold as it is, goes out to him on the illness of his mother (and the great taste he has in wives.)
I got a couple of calls and texts last night from friends who thought I would think McCain is in the catbird seat now. Not at all. I was already backing off the significance of SC before the primary and the fact that my choice was the winner lends objectivity to my position that this game is far from over and that McCain has a lot of work to do to clinch this nomination.
The reality of the McCain victory in SC is that independents can vote in a Republican primary there and Thompson took votes away from Huckabee. That won’t be the case in most of the other states. The symbolism of his win is that he can be accepted by one of the major branches of the Republican Party: social conservatives.
Conventional wisdom is that there are three major branches of the GOP: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and defense/foreign policy conservatives. I would add a fourth, sadly less significant, branch these days: the Libertarian branch of the GOP. Nobody beats McCain on the defense/foreign policy branch. He has to continue to make himself acceptable to social conservatives and seal the deal with fiscal conservatives. His real problem is not so much with social conservatives as with conservatives of all branches who HATE McCain for McCain-Feingold (campaign finance reform) and Kennedy-McCain failed immigration bill).
One of the reasons we have not elected someone from congress in 47 years is that we hold their records against them. Governors who farm peanuts, own baseball teams, and chase skirts are considered executives because they have run states. They can talk as tough as they want about fixing Washington because they have never had to try. Presidential candidates who have never been in congress can posit all kinds of scenarios to solve our problems. People in congress know who makes the laws and that with such a closely divided house and senate, bills have to be able, generally, to appease Trent Lott and Ted Kennedy.
The problem, if I understand it correctly, that the failed immigration bill aroused is that the “path to citizenship” was considered by many to be amnesty. I think McCain is right when he says we currently have de facto amnesty by doing nothing. I also think most Republicans would think Romney and Huckabee are tougher on illegal immigration than McCain. Why? Because Romney and the Huckster keep talking about illegals going back. Yet they have no plan to get them there. Huckabee says they will have to go back but that we won’t have to round them up. He says they got here on their own and they will have to go back on their own. Do you think they’ll need express lanes?
I understand where McCain is on this issue. The problem is that he has to square this with the tons of Republicans who don’t. His South Carolina victory insures nothing except that he has been given a little more credibility, symbolically; among people who once rejected him and that he has a REAL SHOT not at the nomination but at making his case over against Romney and Giuliani.
McCain pulls off narrow SC victory over Huckabee
Romney wins Nevada picks up 10 more delegates than SC
Reporting from Florida, make that Florida Orange Juice Time 6 a.m.
in Chicago with 5 degrees below zero.
First, a ProConPundit apology and correction. The ProConPundit swallowed the media line about how no one has ever won the GOP nomination without winning South Carolina. Well, yes, no one has ever done that since 1980. Remember when they used to say no sitting Vice-President has been elected in over 150 years? Martin Van Buren was the last sitting VP elected to the presidency in 1837 until George H. W. Bush broke that record in 1988. No son of a president, and that is SOP, was ever a president since John Quincy Adams in 1825, until Dubya broke that record in 2000. My guy won in South Carolina last night but can we agree on one thing folks? All bets are off. The old rules of thumb may be out the window. Also, no sitting member of congress has been elected president since 1960. Wonder if that one will get slashed, too? Anyway, I apologize for not having that fact checked.
Nothing could be finer than to see John McCain pull out a victory in South Carolina. Personally, I don’t think it is all that important. I bet that’s not what you expected me to say. This race is wide open. The beauty of the win in the state whose motto is "WHILE I BREATHE I HOPE” is that whether you like John McCain or not, whether you want him to win or not, he is a decent man who was trashed in South Carolina eight years ago, not by Carolinians but by the brain of George W. Bush aka Karl Rove. Come what may, the victory last night breathed in a bit of healing and a bit of hope. With only 40% of evangelicals voting for Huckabee, it also REDEEMED evangelical Christians from the stereotype that they would put theology over anything else. They don’t. The ProConPundit has been a tad rough on the Christian soldiers in that regard.
McCain won with 33% of the vote to Huckabee’s 30% given that Fred Thompson garnered 16% of the vote, there can be no question but that Thompson delivered a victory to McCain by taking votes away from Huckabee. Thompson will get out of the race, probably Monday or Tuesday and endorse McCain. Incidentally, Brownback endorsed McCain when he bowed out and Tancredo endorsed Romney. Anyone else who bows out at this point will endorse McCain.
The Huckster’s narrow loss in SC does demonstrate his ability to do well enough to be taken seriously as a running mate. In fact, his concession speech last night in SC was the re-installation speech of his real campaign—to be Vice-President. He was sickeningly effusive of John McCain, a man he had spent a week trashing. Face it Huckster. You’re only shot at VP is if Romney gets the nod, which is still very much on the table. The maverick warrior doesn’t like slick.
The ProConPundit wishes Thompson would stay in the race through Florida. With McCain, Giuliani and Romney all vying to be the establishment candidate, Huckabee’s populist message to under-employed and unemployed and Christian conservatives could pull out a victory if the other three split the vote. The ProConPundit has learned from well informed sources (that means I think it happened and really wanted it to) that the McCain camp has pledged money to Thompson to stay in through Florida. Thompson would do it except that his mother is gravely ill and wants to tend to that. Fred will say some poignant words in the next couple of days; the screen will go black and say, “PRODUDED BY DICK WOLF.” Thompson is a good man, the ProConPundit heart, cold as it is, goes out to him on the illness of his mother (and the great taste he has in wives.)
I got a couple of calls and texts last night from friends who thought I would think McCain is in the catbird seat now. Not at all. I was already backing off the significance of SC before the primary and the fact that my choice was the winner lends objectivity to my position that this game is far from over and that McCain has a lot of work to do to clinch this nomination.
The reality of the McCain victory in SC is that independents can vote in a Republican primary there and Thompson took votes away from Huckabee. That won’t be the case in most of the other states. The symbolism of his win is that he can be accepted by one of the major branches of the Republican Party: social conservatives.
Conventional wisdom is that there are three major branches of the GOP: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and defense/foreign policy conservatives. I would add a fourth, sadly less significant, branch these days: the Libertarian branch of the GOP. Nobody beats McCain on the defense/foreign policy branch. He has to continue to make himself acceptable to social conservatives and seal the deal with fiscal conservatives. His real problem is not so much with social conservatives as with conservatives of all branches who HATE McCain for McCain-Feingold (campaign finance reform) and Kennedy-McCain failed immigration bill).
One of the reasons we have not elected someone from congress in 47 years is that we hold their records against them. Governors who farm peanuts, own baseball teams, and chase skirts are considered executives because they have run states. They can talk as tough as they want about fixing Washington because they have never had to try. Presidential candidates who have never been in congress can posit all kinds of scenarios to solve our problems. People in congress know who makes the laws and that with such a closely divided house and senate, bills have to be able, generally, to appease Trent Lott and Ted Kennedy.
The problem, if I understand it correctly, that the failed immigration bill aroused is that the “path to citizenship” was considered by many to be amnesty. I think McCain is right when he says we currently have de facto amnesty by doing nothing. I also think most Republicans would think Romney and Huckabee are tougher on illegal immigration than McCain. Why? Because Romney and the Huckster keep talking about illegals going back. Yet they have no plan to get them there. Huckabee says they will have to go back but that we won’t have to round them up. He says they got here on their own and they will have to go back on their own. Do you think they’ll need express lanes?
I understand where McCain is on this issue. The problem is that he has to square this with the tons of Republicans who don’t. His South Carolina victory insures nothing except that he has been given a little more credibility, symbolically; among people who once rejected him and that he has a REAL SHOT not at the nomination but at making his case over against Romney and Giuliani.
2 comments:
The dos agrees with your review of McCain coming out of South Carolina. As a conservative republican it was those very issues that you mentioned in your blog that have kept me away from McCain. But with Thompson out of the race and Huckabee not even a consideration, and Romney just not connecting with me (I don't know what it is about him, is it just me?) Anyway, I thought I heard a conciliatory tone in McCain's speech on Saturday. If he can assure the rank and file that he will back down from the amnesty issue (I don't care what you call it, it was amnesty) and move forward to secure our borders he will get the nomination.
I have always respected McCain and think that he is truly an honorable man and a hero. There are a lot of republicans like me that will vote for him. We can forgive him for the Gang of 14, voting against tax cuts and McCain-Feingold. Just drop the amnesty thing and then step foward to be the next President.
I thought it was great when McCain said he would not deport a mother of a soldier serving in Iraq. He seems to be a straight shooter, unlike some of the other politicans.
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